The May/June Club Carlson devaluation makes it just another middling hotel loyalty program

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Before I get to the meat of my analysis of Club Carlson’s recently-announced devaluation, allow me to briefly mention my general approach when it comes to credit card rewards:

  • I prefer cash above all other rewards currencies. I can use cash to pay my expenses, save for the future, and of course pay for travel out of pocket;
  • There are times when earning rewards currencies besides cash can reduce the cost of a flight or hotel below the cost I would incur making a similar reservation with cash;
  • If those situations occur frequently enough in a specific credit card rewards program, I’ll consider prospectively earning those rewards instead of cash.

The point is that my default mode when earning rewards currencies through credit card spend is cash back, and other loyalty currencies need to offer consistent, out-sized value in order to earn my business. Since the least valuable point is always the one you don’t redeem, I also make sure to redeem my hotel, airline, and proprietary credit card rewards points approximately as quickly as I earn them.

Consider the US Bank Flexperks Travel Rewards credit card. By earning 2 Flexpoints per dollar spent at "grocery stores" or "gas stations” each statement cycle, and redeeming those points for up to 2 cents each towards paid airfare, you might think that a return of up to 4% is a no-brainer (and, indeed, I do earn and redeem a lot of Flexpoints).

But last month I took a $500 voluntary denied boarding voucher on an American Airlines-operated flight. The next time I make a paid American reservation, I’ll use that voucher instead of up to 30,000 Flexpoints. Suddenly I have 30,000 more Flexpoints than I would have otherwise!

Sure, I can redeem them for 1 cent each in cash back, but that’s still a $33 loss compared to putting the same $15,000 in gas station or grocery store spend on my Barclaycard Arrival+ card (or, given the categories, another even higher-earning credit card like my Chase Ink Plus).

The Club Carlson credit cards used to offer consistent, super-sized value

The tool I use to analyze the value of hotel co-branded credit cards is the "imputed redemption value” of award reservations made with the chain: that’s the value you’re implicitly putting on a hotel redemption when you earn enough points through manufactured spend to make an award stay instead of earning cash back with the same spend. The last-night free benefit of the Club Carlson credit cards produced extremely low (that’s good, remember) imputed redemption values for stays of at least 2 nights:

The only other hotel program which I have found to offer consistent value compared to cash back is Hilton HHonors, when you manufacture gas station and grocery store spend with the Surpass co-branded American Express card. While their 2014 devaluation dramatically raised the points cost of their properties, the exceptionally high earning rate of 6 HHonors points per dollar leaves relatively reasonable imputed redemption values, especially on stays of exactly 5 nights, when elites can take advantage of the 5th-night-free benefit:

As I wrote on Friday, Wyndham’s new rewards program, which will, starting May 11, 2015, offer free nights at all participating Wyndham properties for 15,000 Wyndham Rewards points, has a single imputed redemption value. Manufacturing a single night at their properties will cost $166.50 in foregone cash back:

 

Club Carlson’s program will be fine, if you really want to stay at Club Carlson properties

I have a commenter who always pokes fun at me when I talk about staying at dumps like the Radisson Blu es. Hotel, Rome or Radisson Martinique on Broadway just because the last-night-free benefit made them so cheap.

The fact is, I’m a poor person, so if I want to travel as much as I do, I need to do it cheaply. The Club Carlson credit card helped me do that. New York’s an expensive place to stay, and while I could always transfer Ultimate Rewards points to Hyatt and stay at one of their Manhattan properties, those points have an extremely high opportunity cost since they can also be redeemed for cash or paid airfare, or transferred to the right partner at the right moment. The Martinique made sense for me as an (admittedly run-down) alternative.

But beginning June 1, Club Carlson will not offer the outsized rewards that justified manufacturing thousands of dollars per month on their co-branded credit card. Here’s a side-by-side comparison of the imputed redemption values of Club Carlson stays and their competition, with the cheapest, second-cheapest, and most expensive stays highlighted in green, yellow, and red:

Note: For Hilton I used a synthetic "mid tier" value of 45,000 HHonors points, which does not actually exist on their award chart; they have an even number of hotel categories.

As the chart clearly illustrates, at bottom-, mid-, and top-tier properties, Club Carlson is consistently the cheapest or second-cheapest chain to manufacture stays of less than 5 nights (top-tier, 5-night Hilton stays do clock in cheaper at $281, as shown in the chart further above), even without the discontinued last-night-free benefit.

The problem is that in exchange for your Club Carlson points, you’ll have to stay at Club Carlson properties, and many Club Carlson properties are dumps. Unless you have a clutch of Club Carlson properties you visit regularly, or a specific property you have your heart set on visiting, it no longer makes sense to manufacture large numbers of Club Carlson Gold Points speculatively.

If you feel like it, buy 3 domestic nights each year for $326.40 (or $351.40)

The Club Carlson co-branded credit cards still offer a single, specific value proposition:

  • the US Bank Club Carlson Premier Rewards card has an annual fee of $85, while the Business Rewards card has an annual fee of $60;
  • each year you renew your membership with either card, you receive 40,000 Gold Points;
  • starting June 1, 2015, each year you spend $10,000 with the card you receive a free night at any Club Carlson property in the United States.

Since the earning rate of the card hasn’t changed, all this adds up to paying $222 in foregone cash back and a $60 or $85 annual fee, and receiving 90,000 Gold Points and a free night in the United States. Even if you have to manufacture an additional $2,000 in order to “top up” your Gold Points to 100,000 each year, you’ll end up paying $266.40 in foregone cash back, for which you’ll receive at least 3 nights at any US Club Carlson property (there are no domestic Category 7 hotels).

Since my partner and I visit Chicago at least a couple times per year, I’ll probably do exactly that, paying $108.80 per night for an annual 3-night stay at the Radisson Blu Aqua Hotel Chicago in downtown Chicago, which is a lovely hotel we’ve stayed at many times before (using the last-night-free benefit, of course).

By way of comparison, the imputed redemption value of the Hilton downtown Chicago properties (ranging from 40,000 to 60,000 HHonors points, depending on the season) is $118 to $178, while a reservation at the three Category 4 Hyatt properties in downtown Chicago would cost 15,000 transferred Ultimate Rewards points (worth $150 in cash).

Conclusion

The Club Carlson last-night-free benefit was so lucrative it justified a lot of otherwise-bizarre behavior. At the end of May, it’ll be gone, and Club Carlson will be just another middling hotel chain, packed with dilapidated, aging properties and struggling for relevance.

It sure was fun while it lasted, though!

Yes, the new Wyndham Rewards program will be great

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I saw yesterday morning that Shawn at Miles to Memories had taken a crack at comparing the much-beloved Club Carlson rewards program with the just-announced changes to the Wyndham Rewards program, effective May 11, 2015.

There are many methods of comparing co-branded hotel credit cards. Personally, I prefer using a metric I call "imputed redemption values:" the amount of cash back foregone by using a hotel's co-branded credit card instead of a 2% or 2.22% cash back card.

The method isn't perfect (it ignores points earned on paid stays and elite-qualifying nights and stays) but it has two key benefits: it makes co-branded hotel credit cards directly comparable; and it gives a rough guideline for how much your typical room redemptions should cost to make hotel points worth manufacturing at the expense of cash back.

For example, here's an imputed redemption value chart for Club Carlson, in which I've helpfully included the last-night-free benefit:

This chart illustrates the decreasing impact of the last-night-free benefit on longer stays.

By contrast, here's an imputed redemption value chart I whipped up just now for Wyndham Rewards' revalued post-May 11, 2015, program, using the Barclaycard no-annual-fee co-branded credit card earning 2 Wyndham Rewards points on all purchases:

Stating the obvious

A glance at the charts shows that, unsurprisingly, It's still true that if you're staying exactly two nights somewhere with a Club Carlson property where you'll be happy staying, those two nights will always be cheaper if manufactured with a Club Carlson credit card than with a Wyndham Rewards credit card (or any other hotel's co-branded credit card).

Some people take vacations of more or fewer than 2 days

But if you're staying a single night, your last-night-free benefit is worthless. If you're staying more than 2 nights, and especially if you don't have a second Club Carlson account you can use to book alternating pairs of nights, the last-night-free benefit rapidly loses value.

Wyndham and Club Carlson have different property footprints

This works in two different ways. First, Club Carlson and Wyndham properties are located in different places. If you want to stay where a Wyndham property is located, you need to use Wyndham points or cash. If you want to stay where the Club Carlson property is located, you need to use Club Carlson points or cash.

Second, the distribution of properties within category bands is different. In a city with exclusively high-category Club Carlson properties, Wyndham stays are more likely to be cheaper (except on two-night stays, as mentioned above), while areas with low-category Club Carlson properties will have relatively expensive Wyndham properties.

The important thing to note here is that these distributions are not random. It is knowable (or at least predictable) in advance whether you're going to be visiting areas with relatively expensive or relatively cheap Wyndham properties (for example by looking at your travel pattern for the previous few years).

In other words, you don't need to decide between Club Carlson and Wyndham in a vacuum: you can make an educated guess about how well each program will work for you based on your actual and planned travel.

Club Carlson properties are wildly inconsistent

I'm checking in for a 2-night Club Carlson stay this afternoon. A few days ago I checked out of another 2-night Club Carlson stay. I had a 2-night Club Carlson stay in Rome in January. Last year I had several 2-night Club Carlson stays in New York City.

Suffice it to say, I love Club Carlson's program, and I love the last-night-free benefit.

With that out of the way, let's be honest: Club Carlson properties can be pretty terrible. The Radisson Blu in Rome has a great location right by the train station and a great breakfast buffet, and it costs just 44,000 Gold Points per 2-night stay (about $98 in foregone cash back per night). But I'll never stay there again; it's a dump.

Of course, readers have also shared wonderful experiences at various Club Carlson properties. The point is simply that locking yourself into Club Carlson because it's the "best" rewards program requires you to be indifferent to the quality of the properties themselves.

As travel hackers, we can hold ourselves to (at least slightly) higher standards than that!

Conclusion

The Wyndham Rewards co-branded credit card paired with the May 11, 2015, revaluation of the Wyndham Rewards program will make Wyndham Rewards stays in areas with high-category properties in other chains the cheapest or second-cheapest to manufacture, depending on the length of your stay.

However, whether it makes sense to prospectively manufacture large numbers of Wyndham Rewards points will still depend entirely on the distribution and quality of Wyndham and other hotel properties in the areas you actually intend to visit.

Anatomy of an Award Trip: City of New Orleans

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As teased in yesterday's housekeeping post, I'm headed to New Orleans for a week! Here's the scoop:

Getting there: a family bedroom on Amtrak's City of New Orleans

Amtrak operates a daily service between Chicago and New Orleans stopping in, among other places: Champaign-Urbana, IL, Carbondale, IL, Memphis, TN, and Jackson, MS.

Since both Chicago and New Orleans are in Amtrak's "Central Zone," a roomette award costs 15,000 Amtrak Guest Rewards points while a bedroom award costs just 25,000 Amtrak Guest Rewards points. Importantly, such awards include the fare for up to the maximum occupancy of the room. In other words, up to two people can travel in a roomette on a single, one-zone 15,000 Amtrak Guest Rewards award redemption.

Since my partner and I have already experienced the "roomette" (on the Empire Builder) and "bedroom" (on the Southwest Chief and Coast Starlight) room types, I decided to redeem my points for a "family bedroom." Here are a few key things to know about such redemptions:

  • They cost the same number of Amtrak Guest Rewards points as a regular bedroom award;
  • They include up to two adults and two children;
  • They have windows facing out both sides of the train (roomettes and bedrooms are lined up along each side of the wagon, looking out one direction or the other);
  • They do not have en-suite facilities. My understanding is that the family bedroom is on the same level of the wagon as the public showers, while bedrooms have private showers and toilets directly off the sleeping quarters.

Since the ride is just under 20 hours, my expectation is that the roomier accommodations and better views will make up for the lack of a private toilet and shower, but on a longer, cross-country trip that may become increasingly inconvenient.

Total cost: 25,000 Amtrak Guest Rewards points (transferred instantly from Ultimate Rewards).
Total value: $637. Value per point: 2.55 cents.

Staying there: Club Carlson and Hilton HHonors

Since we'll be in New Orleans for 7 nights, there were a few decent options for hotel redemptions:

  • There's a category 6 Marriott downtown, the AC Hotel New Orleans Bourbon/French Quarter Area, where I could have redeemed 230,000 Marriott Rewards points for a 7-night Hotel + Air package and received a rebate of up to 55,000 United Mileage Plus miles or, more realistically, 50,000 Alaska Airlines Mileage Plan miles. That would have involved transferring 180,000 Ultimate Rewards points, worth $1,800 in cash. Since 7 nights at a 4-star hotel downtown cost (very roughly) $1,300, even generously valuing the Alaska miles at 2 cents each I'd only be getting about 1.28 cents per transferred Ultimate Rewards point. I felt I could do better.
  • There's a Club Carlson property downtown in the French Quarter, the Country Inn & Suites By Carlson, New Orleans French Quarter, LA. As a Category 5 property costing 44,000 Gold Points per night, I could theoretically book 7 nights for the price of 6, or 264,000 Gold Points. Using the same $1,300 valuation as above, that would yield 0.49 cents per Gold Points. Since the Club Carlson Business Rewards Visa earns 5 Gold Points per dollar spent, that would yield a return of 2.46% on the spend I manufacture with the card, which isn't terrible for non-bonused spend.
  • There's also a category 7 Hilton property downtown, the Hilton New Orleans/St. Charles Avenue. It ordinarily costs 50,000 HHonors points per night, but due to weird Hilton premium award pricing is available for 44,519 HHonors points during our stay in New Orleans. The wrinkle is that as an HHonors elite, I can book 5 nights for the price of 4, or 200,000 HHonors points, but unfortunately that benefit only applies to standard room awards, not premium room awards, which is where "weird" award pricing comes into play! Nonetheless, 280,000 HHonors points for a 7-night stay, $1,300 stay would yield 0.46 cents per HHonors point, or a 2.79% return on gas station and grocery store spend with my American Express HHonors Surpass card.

Ultimately, I split the difference: since the last night is free on all Club Carlson award reservations separated by at least one day, I booked our first two and last two nights in New Orleans at the Country Inn & Suites, and the middle three nights at the Hilton New Orleans/St. Charles Avenue, taking advantage of "weird" premium award pricing. In total, I paid 88,000 Club Carlson Gold Points for four nights (0.84 cents per Gold Point at $185 per night) and 133,557 HHonors points for three nights (0.42 cents per HHonors point at $185 per night).

However, if standard rooms open up for five consecutive nights at the Hilton, I'll cancel the first or last Club Carlson redemption and rebook using 200,000 HHonors points instead, saving the Gold Points for another day.

Getting back: US Bank Flexpoints for Delta first class (credited to Alaska)

For our return, I noticed that Delta was selling first class seats on the perfect itinerary home for just a hair under $400: $392.10, to be precise. Since I'm sitting on a constantly-growing stash of US Bank Flexpoints, it was a no-brainer to book us in paid first class for 20,000 Flexpoints per ticket. I'll credit the flights to Alaska, which will net me 3,922 Mileage Plan miles and get me 2,139 elite-qualifying miles closer to MVP status for next year.

Total cost: 40,000 Flexpoints.
Total value: $784.20. Value per point: 1.96 cents.

Conclusion

We're thrilled to be headed back to New Orleans, and I'm excited to try out a new Amtrak accommodation type on a new route. So until next week, I'll leave you with this:

Have a great weekend!

MS for hotels: taking Matt at his word

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Background

This week I saw a lot of reactions to Drew at Travel is Free's post on manufacturing spend for hotel stays. Unfortunately, by looking only at the dollar cost of manufacturing spend, and not the opportunity cost, Drew left out the key fact that if you're not getting 2 or 2.2 cents per point when manufacturing spend on your co-branded credit cards, you'd be better off earning cash back and paying with cash for your stays.

Matt at Saverocity took advantage of that oversight to poke fun at Drew:

"Let me ask you a question… if I gave you $10,000 (plus fees) of my float and said. Come back with as many SPG points as you could, what would you do?

  • buy 285,715 points with the 10K?

  • buy 20x $500 cards with your SPG Amex and earn 10,000 points?

  • buy 20 x $500 cards with your 5x, earning $500 cash and use that to buy at 3.5cents each?[...

...]Option 2 (use the SPG) vs Option 3 (use a 5% and buy points) is the difference between earning 10,000 (SPG card) and 14,785 (14,285, plus the act of buying the would earn 500 more)."

Now, my readers know that this wasn't strictly speaking fair of Matt. Of course you should be putting as much spend as you can on your 5% cash back cards – until that spend is throttled.

But Matt's quip still got me thinking: are there co-branded credit cards that generate points that can't be bought more cheaply with a 5% cash back card?

Love for sale: buying hotel loyalty points

Here's the cost of buying hotel loyalty points from each program I follow (without any bonuses on purchased points):

  • Starwood Preferred Guest (up to 20,000 Starpoints per calendar year): 3.5 cents per Starpoint;
  • Hilton HHonors (up to 40,000 HHonors points annually): 1 cent per HHonors point;
  • Marriott Rewards (up to 50,000 Marriott Rewards points annually): 1.25 cents per Marriott rewards point;
  • Hyatt Gold Passport (up to 40,000 Gold Passport points annually): 2.4 cents per Hyatt Gold Passport point;
  • IHG Rewards Club (up to 40,000 IHG Rewards points annually): 1.15 cents per IHG Rewards point;
  • Club Carlson (up to 40,000 Gold Points annually): 0.7 cents per Gold Point.

Analysis: cash back versus co-branded credit cards

Remember, the question is: are there points that are cheaper to earn through manufacturing spend on a co-branded credit card than buying them with cash back earned with a 5% cash back credit card (within annual purchase limits)?

We can immediately rule out the Starwood Preferred Guest American Express and Chase Marriott Rewards, Hyatt Gold Passport, and IHG Rewards Club credit cards, all of which earn just 1 point per dollar spent. Earning 5% cash back, on the other hand, allows you to purchase:

  • 1.43 Starpoint (43% bonus);
  • 4 Marriott Rewards points (300% bonus);
  • 2.08 Hyatt Gold Passport points (108% bonus);
  • or 4.35 IHG points (335% bonus).

The US Bank Club Carlson Premier and Business cards, which earn 5 Gold Points per dollar spent everywhere, come closer to par, since you can buy just 7.14 Gold Points with a 5% cash back credit card – a 43% bonus, the same as purchased Starpoints.

Hilton HHonors for the (dubious) win

The only hotel program whose co-branded credit cards stand toe-to-toe with 5% cash back in this comparison is Hilton HHonors. The Hilton HHonors Surpass American Express earns 6 HHonors points per dollar spent at gas stations and grocery stores, while a 5% cash back card in the same categories would only allow you to purchase 5 HHonors points at 1 cent each.

Conclusion

As Matt correctly points out, this analysis is absurd: you'll virtually always be better off spending your 5% cash back on revenue rooms, rather than buying hotel points to redeem for the same or similar hotels. However, it is worth keeping in mind if you happen to be close to a hotel redemption (perhaps an expensive Starwood Nights & Flights or Marriott Hotel + Air vacation package) and are considering shifting some of your manufactured spend from your 5% cash back card to a co-branded hotel card in order to earn the remaining points. Except in the case of Hilton, that's a trap – keep earning 5% cash back and just buy the remaining points you need (or transfer them from a flexible points currency like Ultimate Rewards).

Point density versus imputed redemption values

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There are two related, but distinct, concepts that bear thinking about when contemplating hotel loyalty currencies. The same concepts are involved in airline mile redemptions, but in a much more nebulous way since airline award availability is much more closely tied to fares than in the hotel world, where (in some cases and under some circumstances) you are able to redeem your points for hotel rooms year-round.

Those concepts are "point density" and what I've called in the past (Club Carlson, Hilton) the "value per night required" to justify manufacturing spend on a co-branded credit card rather than a 2.22% cash back credit card like the Barclaycard Arrival+ MasterCard.

What's the difference?

Point Density

Point density, in the sense I use it, is a specific measure of the rebate value of a dollar spent with a hotel chain when the earned points are used for award stays with that chain.

On this page, I've calculated the point densities for 6 hotel loyalty program under a variety of conditions. Point density takes into account 2 variables: your elite status with the chain in question (and use of a co-branded credit card, if applicable) and the desired hotel category you aim to redeem your points in, and generates a single number: the number of dollars you need to spend to generate that award night redemption.

Some of this information was assembled by Travel is Free in this sprawling infographic (now slightly dated). You'll want to examine my complete point density charts if you want to make an educated decision about your own loyalty.

To give the most trivial example of point density, here's the amount of money that has to be spent with each hotel loyalty for a non-elite member using a third-party credit card to earn an award night at a top-tier property in that program, notwithstanding any promotions:

  • Starwood Preferred Guest (excluding "suite-only" properties): $17,500
  • Hilton HHonors: $9,500
  • Hyatt Gold Passport: $6,000
  • IHG Rewards: $5,000
  • Marriott Rewards (excluding Ritz Carlton properties): $4,500
  • Club Carlson: $3,500

Point density is the concept you want to focus on when you're paying out of your own pocket for your travel or have a choice where your employer puts you up. By examining the various point density charts, you can decide where the rebate value of your hotel spend will be highest: which chain will reward you with free nights at the properties you want to stay the most quickly?

Imputed Redemption Values

What I've previously called the "value per night required," but which is better called "imputed redemption value," measures something different: the value you need to get from redemptions of your manufactured spend to justify putting it on a hotel's co-branded credit card rather than a 2.22% cash back card like the Barclaycard Arrival+ World MasterCard.

My updated calculation of these imputed redemption values for Club Carlson are illustrative:

Reading this chart is simple: if you're redeeming 70,000 Gold Points for one night at a Category 7 Club Carlson property, your imputed redemption value is $308, since that's the value of the Barclaycard Arrival miles you could have earned with the same $14,000 in manufactured spend. If a revenue room at the same property is less than $308, you would have been better off manufacturing that spend on a 2.22% cash back card — or staying at a cheaper property!

However, as I've stressed before (here and here), that doesn't mean you shouldn't redeem your Gold Points for that night. On the other hand, if you find yourself consistently redeeming your points for below their imputed redemption value, you should take the time to reconsider your overall miles and points strategy.

Here's the chart I assembled for the Hilton HHonors program, assuming your spend is manufactured with the HHonors Surpass card at 6 HHonors points per dollar spent:

Here's a real-life example of decision making using this chart: I'm planning a 2-night stay at the Hilton Molino Stucky Venice this January, when the cheapest standard room award is 50,000 HHonors points. When I pull up room rates at the property, I find that rooms on my travel dates are costing $193. Since that's $8 above the imputed redemption value of $185 for 2-night, 50,000 point stays, I know that I'm not going to be leaving money on the table booking with HHonors points rather than my Arrival+ card.

This analysis doesn't take into account the points and elite night and stay credit earned on paid stays. In this case, by booking with HHonors points I'm foregoing about 3,700 HHonors points (as a Gold elite), or more depending on any promotions running in January.

That's a trivial enough sum that I'm comfortable disregarding it, but if you're gunning for high-level elite status with a chain that rewards loyalty better than Hilton does, like Starwood or Hyatt, foregoing your elite stay and night credits might require a larger redemption surplus.

Remaining Imputed Redemption Values

The remaining co-branded credit cards don't feature high earning on everyday spend like Club Carlson or lucrative bonus categories like the HHonors Surpass, so their imputed redemption values are easy to calculate:

Starwood Preferred Guest

Marriott Rewards

Hyatt Gold Passport

IHG Rewards

Remember: lower imputed redemption values are better

When deciding whether to redeem a fixed-value points currency or a hotel's own loyalty currency, you'll ideally maximize the difference between the value of your stay and your imputed redemption value. That's the money you "save" by manufacturing spend on a co-branded credit card instead of a 2.22% cash back credit card.

In this light, some of the higher imputed redemption values in the charts above are so high it's hard to imagine their relevance. In reality, if you look closely at the properties involved you might find the values are not completely unrealistic.

True, in a few minutes of surfing I wasn't able to find a single IHG property that retailed for over $1,100 per night. But Park Hyatts like Milan ($662 for the first date I checked), Paris Vendome ($730), and Sydney ($939) can easily exceed the $660 imputed redemption value for Category 7 properties. That's worth keeping in mind if you have your heart set on a specific property in an exotic locale (so-called "aspirational" award trips).

Conclusion

Imputed redemption values give you a simple method to decide how to achieve your travel goals as effectively as possible.

On that note, consider that cash and points awards, such as those offered by Hilton, Hyatt, and Starwood, sometimes provide the best of both worlds: the ability to redeem your Arrival miles against the cash portion of the award, while cashing in your hotel points at a value that exceeds the "remaining" imputed redemption value for your stay.

What do no-blackout-date policies really mean?

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During last weekend's trip to New York, I ran into a problem that I think is fairly common: a property won't show award availability, even though standard rooms are still available at cash rates.

In case readers run into similar situations, I thought this would make a useful resource: hotel chain policies on award blackout dates.

Club Carlson

According to Club Carlson's website:

"As a Club CarlsonSM member, you can redeem your Gold Points® for free Award Nights at more than 1,000 Carlson Rezidor hotels worldwide – with no blackout dates on standard rooms."

While attempting to make a reservation at the Radisson Martinique, I discovered that even though standard rooms were still available for sale, I was not able to redeem Gold Points for one. Indeed, you can see this is still true today:

Since I was getting down to the wire planning the trip, I decided to reach out to Club Carlson and see if they could make me an award reservation anyway. The phone agent I spoke to was singularly unhelpful, so I tried Twitter. The agent asked me to e-mail her, and over e-mail she told me:

"Rooms using points for reservations are based on availability and hotels only set aside a certain amount of rooms for redemption reservations, promotions, discounts, etc."

In other words, their "no blackout date" policy means nothing: while there aren't any systemwide blackout dates, hotels can make rooms unavailable for redemption any time.

I've since discovered that the Radisson Martinique makes rooms available for weekend redemptions sometime Wednesday afternoon. So if you are interested in making a reservation there, try the Club Carlson website then to see if they've opened up any award availability.

Hilton HHonors

Here's the Hilton policy on blackout dates:

"Use your HHonors Points to book a free standard room at any of our hotels and resorts worldwide, with no blackout dates."

And indeed, while I was looking at award availability at the Hilton Molino Stucky Venice, I discovered that while there were no award nights available for some nights:

there were also no paid rooms available for the same dates:

Marriott Rewards

In this FAQ, Marriott explains:

"Blackout dates traditionally refer to a limited number of dates on which a hotel could choose not to accept redemptions. With our “No Blackout Dates” policy, hotels will no longer have blackout dates for redemptions. Hotels may limit the number of standard rooms available for redemption on a limited number of days."

In case that sounds an awful lot like a blackout date, Marriott goes on to clarify that redemptions might not be allowed if:

"The date is an approved Inventory Control Date. On a limited number of nights, hotels may limit the number of rooms available for redemption. You may be trying to redeem on one of these nights and the hotel has already reached its maximum number of redemptions."

In other words, hotels can limit points redemptions if the date is one when people particularly want to stay at the hotel.

Hyatt Gold Passport

According to the Hyatt Gold Passport terms and conditions:

"Hyatt Gold Passport Free Night Awards apply when standard rooms are available at the Hyatt Daily Rate. Standard rooms are defined by each hotel and are not subject to blackout dates."

That seems pretty airtight, but there were enough reports of difficulty booking standard rooms that just this May a Hyatt representative explicitly stated on FlyerTalk:

"As long as the Hyatt Daily Rate and a standard room is available, you are able to redeem your Gold Passport free nights."

While seeing whether I could make an award reservation for December 31, 2014, in New York City, the two properties that still had (astronomically expensive) paid rates available seemed to show award availability:

Once I clicked through, however, I was told that:

"The special offer/rate you have selected is unavailable during the dates you have selected, or it is not offered at this property."

It appears that these properties have tricked out their inventory such that they're offering only "Advance Purchase" and "Bed and Breakfast" rates, presumably knowing that if they offered any "Hyatt Daily Rate" rooms they'd have to offer those rooms on points, as well. This may be within the letter of the no-blackout-date policy, but in my view still violates the spirit of the policy, not that anyone cares about my views on hotel management.

IHG Rewards

Like Marriott and Club Carlson, IHG Rewards "no blackout date" policy is so full of loopholes you could drive a truck through it. Here's the relevant passage from the terms and conditions:

"Rooms are limited, subject to prior sale and availability of allocated resources and may be unavailable during high demand periods."

In other words, there are no blackout dates, just dates when the allocated resources don't allow you to make an award reservation.

Starwood Preferred Guest

The SPG terms and conditions state in no uncertain terms:

"An SPG Member may redeem Starpoints for single or double occupancy rooms at SPG Participating Hotels including, without limitation, for Free Night Awards."

The New Year's Eve test

It's hard to get a sense of how these programs and policies work in a vacuum, so I figured it'd be fun to run a little experiment. Which programs would allow me to redeem points for free nights at their Manhattan properties on December 31, 2014 (and what kind of value could I get from such an award)?

  • Club Carlson: Radisson Martinique, no rooms available;
  • Hilton: Hilton Manhattan East, $690.91 or 70,000 HHonors points, 0.99 cents per point;
  • Marriott: Lexington New York City, $591.13 or 40,000 Marriott Rewards points, 1.48 cents per point;
  • Hyatt: No Hyatt Daily Rate rooms available, so no award availability (see above);
  • IHG: Manhattan Midtown West, standard rooms available but "Reward Nights rooms are sold out for one or more of the dates you selected at this hotel."
  • Starwood: Four Points by Sheraton Manhattan Chelsea, $1,150 or 12,000 Starpoints, 9.5 cents per point.

In other words, Starwood and Hilton seem to vigorously apply the letter and spirit of their no-blackout-date policies.

Whatever policy IHG has barely qualifies as "no blackout dates."

Hyatt seems to allow their properties to play games with inventory, which is unfortunate, but all things considered, they do seem to have a relatively strict policy, and one supported by management.

The only real surprise here is Marriott, and it's a pleasant one: although their terms and conditions allow them to designate New Year's Eve as an Inventory Control Date, they haven't done so, and kudos to them for it.

Anatomy of an award trip: weekend in New York City

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One piece of feedback I regularly get from readers is that while I write a lot about the earning side of miles and points, they'd like to hear more about the redemption side. To be sure, I've written about how I booked vacations to Prague and Philadelphia, and commented on specific things like the weirdness of Alaska Airlines' long-haul first class cabins.

But frankly, while I do more leisure travel than most people I know, or most people my age, it mostly follows a familiar pattern: visiting friends and family or taking a long weekend to visit a new or beloved city.

And when booking those trips, I mostly follow a few simple steps:

  1. Look at my points balances;
  2. Check award availability;
  3. Book an award ticket, if available;
  4. Book award nights, if available;
  5. Charge everything else to my Barclaycard Arrival.

You might ask where point valuations come into play in this system, and the answer is they don't. That's because as I never cease to remind people, by the time you're making reservations, it's too late to change the number or type of points you have. Only once you know how you in fact use your miles and points can you know what they're worth – that is to say, how much money they save you.

I took an award trip to New York City last weekend that illustrates this point nicely.

Getting there: low-level Delta award ticket

My partner and I were able to book two low-level award tickets leaving Thursday evening on a non-stop and returning Sunday morning with a connection in Detroit. We booked the trip less than two weeks before departure, when tickets were pricing out at about $460 each.

Total cost: 25,000 Delta Skymiles, $10. Total value: $460. Value per point: 1.84 cents.

In fact, the exact itinerary we booked would have cost $651, but there's no way we would have paid that much, so the lowest available fare for those dates is a better point of comparison.

Whether you're earning 1.4 Skymiles per dollar, 1.5 Skymiles per dollar, or generating boundless Skymiles with the Suntrust Delta Skymiles Check Card, 1.84 cent-per-Skymile redemptions will make that spend competitive with either a 2% or 2.22% cash back card. Of course, at high levels of spend the Delta Platinum and Reserve American Express cards have other benefits, as well.

Staying there: Hilton Points and Money award

We spent our first night in Manhattan at the Millenium Hilton on a Points and Money award, paying $118.25 and 32,000 HHonors points. For all three nights, the best alternative rate I was able to find was $206 after tax at the Ludlow Hotel.

The Millenium Hilton was a terrific property, and was the first Hilton property I've stayed at that allowed us to take the complimentary Gold Elite continental breakfast by room service. Lots of digital ink has been spilled over taking the Andaz Wall Street's Diamond breakfast benefit by room service, but I hadn't realized that benefit was offered by some Hiltons as well. This was my first time ever ordering room service, and I thought it was a very nice touch.

Total cost: 32,000 Hilton HHonors points, $118.25. Total value: $206. Value per point: 0.27 cents.

While 0.27 cents is well over my money cost of acquisition (0.13 cents), it's well below my opportunity cost of acquisition, since rather than earning 6 HHonors points per dollar (1.62% cash back) with my American Express Surpass card at bonused merchants, I could be earning 2% or 2.22% cash back at the same merchants.

The crucial point here is that this wasn't a "bad" redemption just because in retrospect the spend used to generate the necessary points could have been used more profitably on another credit card. That ship already sailed.

What it does mean is that before I earn any additional HHonors points, I need to take a hard look at my upcoming travel plans and decide whether those plans are better financed with cash back or HHonors points. Having done so, I know I have some 0.45-0.5 cent redemptions coming up, so I'll happily continue to use my Surpass card at bonused merchants.

Staying there: Club Carlson last-night-free award

For our last two nights, I redeemed 50,000 Club Carlson Gold Points for two nights at the Radisson Martinique on Broadway.

Total cost: 50,000 Gold Points. Total value: $412. Value per point: 0.82 cents.

Redemptions like this one are why I argued Club Carlson points can sometimes be worth as much as a penny each. Since my US Bank Club Carlson Business Rewards card earns 5 Gold Points per dollar spent everywhere, the dollars spent on the card in order to make this award redemption earned about 4.1% cash back. Since I have other high-value award redemptions coming up soon, I know I'm on the right track continuing to manufacture spend on that card.

Conclusion

The only value that miles and points could possibly have is the value you get for the redemptions you make. By looking at your past and future award redemptions (and the cost of your paid travel) you can determine which cards deliver outsized returns over a 2% or 2.22% cash back card.

Why you might (and might not) buy Gold Points for 0.4 cents each

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A few bloggers have pointed out today that the current Club Carlson Gold Point flash sale allows you to buy up to 70,000 Gold Points for $280, or 0.4 cents each. I'm looking at my travel plans to decide whether to go for it. Here's why.

Opportunity cost and revealed preferences

In my discussion of Frequent Miler's latest experiment in mile and point valuations, I argued that the only kind of valuation that makes any sense for a travel hacker is asking the question,

"how much do I need to value a redemption to justify putting the needed spend on a co-branded credit card instead of a 2% or 2.22% cash back credit card?"

In my detailed analysis of Club Carlson's award chart, I found that it's relatively easy to justify manufacturing spend on the Club Carlson co-branded credit cards, requiring a valuation of just $111 per night at Category 6 properties like the Radisson Martinique on Broadway, where I stayed last weekend, while any value in excess of that is pure profit.

And I do, indeed, manufacture spend on my Club Carlson credit card, earning 5 Gold Points per dollar and foregoing 2% or 2.22% cash back on the same non-bonused spend.

That means I have what economists call a revealed preference: I'd rather hold 5 Gold Points than 2 or 2.22 cents, by definition valuing Gold Points at over 0.4 cents each, the price at which they're currently for sale.

That doesn't mean you should buy opportunistically

I have two simple goals here on the blog: destroying the undeserved reputation of the Chase Sapphire Preferred and convincing people to value their points correctly. The first appears hopeless, but I'm going to keep chipping away at the second.

The only mile-and-point valuation that matters is the value you get out of your miles and points — and the least valuable point is the one you don't redeem.

That means if you have a Club Carlson co-branded credit card and want to plan a weekend trip to New York, you can prepay $203 for two nights in advance by buying the "29,000 + 21,750" package. It's pretty hard to find a $101.50 night in the middle of Manhattan, and while the Radisson Martinique (deservedly) doesn't have a great reputation, that's still a pretty compelling value.

On the other hand, if you don't have upcoming travel plans where you can get an outsized, or at least good, value like that, the Gold Points are just going to sit in your account and fester, losing value with each devaluation, while you'll be out $203 in cold hard cash.

If you bought the maximum number of Gold Points during this promotion (70,000), you would need to aggressively plan some redemptions for them. Of course, the problem with planning your redemptions aggressively is that it might lead you to overlook even better values at other properties.

Conclusion

Take a look at your travel plans and point balances before deciding whether or not it makes sense to participate in the current flash sale.

In either case, the sale ends Thursday, June 19, at 11:59 am EST.

My next application cycle

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Background: What's in my wallet?

Compared to many travel bloggers, I rely on signup bonuses for a relatively small part of my travel needs. For example, my Barclaycard Arrival World MasterCard came with a 40,000 "mile" signup bonus, worth $444 in statement credits against travel purchases.

However, since it earns 2 miles per dollar, worth 2.22% cash back against travel purchases, it's also my go-to card for non-bonused manufactured spend, and I've earned and redeemed many tens of thousands of miles with the card. The 40,000 mile signup bonus is a great incentive to include it in any application cycle, but it's not the only reason to get the card, and in a lower-signup-bonus environment the card might still be worth applying for — at least for the first, fee-free, year.

All this leads me to say that since I rely on manufactured spend more than signup bonuses, it's more important for me to find the right combination of cards on the earning side than merely waiting for the highest signup bonuses. For example, I applied for the American Express Blue Cash back in January because of its earning potential, not its signup bonus — then I included a few cards with valuable signup bonuses to round out my application cycle.

The cards I'm waiting for

There are a few cards I don't yet have, which are going to complement my current holdings nicely. I plan to apply for these cards during my next application cycle:

  • Bank of America Alaska Airlines Signature Visa. The signup bonus for this card went as high as 50,000 miles back in December, during what I called a perfect storm of signup bonuses. It's currently stuck at 40,000 miles after spending $10,000 within 6 months, which is a great offer. But I'm hoping it pops back up to 50,000 sometime soon, so I can keep earning Alaska miles after May 31, when the Bank of America Alaska Airlines debit card finally disappears;
  • American Express Starwood Preferred Guest Personal or Business. This card has a 25,000 Starpoint signup bonus, and the ability to earn Starpoints, which are incredibly valuable for hotel stays, but also transferable to partner airlines and redeemable for paid airline tickets. In other words, if approved I'll be putting this card in heavy rotation, despite its earning rate of just 1 Starpoint per dollar;
  • Chase Ink Bold or Plus. I write about the earning potential of these cards fairly regularly, mainly when I'm envying people who already have them. I've grown increasingly disgusted with my Chase Sapphire Preferred card, since I put my travel purchases on my Arrival card and just don't eat out all that often (no reimbursed business expenses here!). I'm looking forward to changing my Sapphire Preferred to a Chase Freedom card (doubling my quarterly bonus earnings) and adding an Ink Bold or Plus to retain the flexibility of my Ultimate Rewards points.

What's missing

After picking up those three cards I'll have access to virtually all the most valuable points currencies. But there are a few cards I'm still considering for their other benefits:

  • Chase Hyatt Visa. I've written about this card before when contemplating whether it's worth renewing for its annual free night certificate (short answer: yes, if you'll use it). It simply isn't the case that staying at a Hyatt property is the best option for me very often, which makes it a tough decision to spend a hard credit pull on the card without specific upcoming plans;
  • Membership Rewards. American Express has a number of cards with lucrative Membership Rewards earning structures, but until I can find a few reliable venders where I can maximize those bonus categories, I'm not willing to commit to a $95 or $175 annual fee, given the signup bonuses currently available;
  • Club Carlson Premier Rewards Visa Signature. I already have the business version of this card, and I love it. The personal version has a slightly higher annual fee ($75 vs $60), and gives an additional 40,000 Gold Points on each account anniversary. That's a great value, but I'm not convinced it's worth another $75, given that I can manufacture 40,000 Gold Points whenever I want, without paying $75 or waiting for my account anniversary!

Those are the cards that are currently on my mind. What do you think: what cards do I need to include in my next application cycle?