How does Hilton price 5th-night-free awards?

I manufacture a lot of Hilton Honors points with the American Express Surpass co-branded credit card, and I redeem almost as many. The Surpass earns a free night certificate that can be used worldwide after spending $15,000 per year and Diamond status after $40,000 in spend, but I am perfectly happy earning 6 points per dollar spent at grocery stores all year.

I try to redeem points for at least 0.5 cents each, and do not have any difficulty finding opportunities to do so, although as always you have to be careful that you’re comparing redemptions against the money you would spend instead, not the cash value of the room you redeem points for.

For example, I stayed at the Conrad Hilton Midtown last weekend for 95,000 points per night (plus two of those free night certificates), which translates to something like 0.7 cents in value, but of course I wouldn’t spend $675 to spend the night in New York City, so it would be absurd to say I earned 4.2% in value on my grocery store spend.

One way to maximize the value of that spend is by using the fifth-night-free benefit on award stays whenever possible. Fourth- and fifth-night-free offers are pretty common across the industry, and Hilton’s is one of the most straightforward: to trigger the benefit, all you have to do is book a standard room for 5 or more nights entirely with points.

That’s how the benefit is triggered. Understanding how it’s calculated is trickier.

There are lots of ways to calculate the value of a night

I mention that other programs have free-night benefits for stays of a certain length because they illustrate how a simple-sounding benefit can have both opportunities and perils. Most importantly, how does the value of a fifth-night-free benefit change when the nightly rate varies over the course of the stay?

Chase IHG Rewards credit cardholders get a “true” fourth-night-free: the point cost of the specific night which happens to be fourth is zeroed out. This creates opportunities to stage your reservations so that the most expensive nights of your stay are the fourth ones and increasing the potential value of the boost to your points’ value over 33%, and the risk of “wasting” the benefit on a cheap fourth night..

The Citi Prestige card offered what they called a fourth-night-free benefit, but it was calculated as just 25% off the (apparently-inflated) prepaid cash rates offered through their travel portal. This meant the maximum value of the benefit was capped at 33%, with higher portal rates grinding down the value of the benefit from that theoretical cap.

Marriott Rewards’ version stretches the concept to the breaking point: on 5-night stays, the lowest-priced night is deemed to be the “fifth,” so on stays with varying rates you will never capture the full 25% boost boost in value; only on five-night stays where each night is priced equally do you get the maximum value from the benefit.

Hilton seems to use a “trimmed” fifth-night-free calculation

Since I have a fair amount of experience redeeming Hilton points, I’ve had the chance to observe how Hilton handles this inevitable question: how many points should you expect to save when using a fifth-night-free benefit?

First, to trigger the benefit, the same room type has to be available for the entirety of your stay. That means you need to go further than the Hilton award calendar, since you might see lower rates for one-night stay in a room type that isn’t available for all five nights.

Second, if the room type you’re booking has no change in price over your stay, then it’s as irrelevant as you’d expect: you save 20%, getting a 25% boost to the value of your points.

When the points rate varies over the course of your stay, then things get interesting. On the checkout screen, you’ll see a rate listed for each of the first four nights and “5th Night Free” listed next to the last night. But those first four rates are not necessarily the rates you’d pay if you were booking each night individually. Instead, Hilton sometimes “trims” those, slightly increasing or decreasing the price of each night.

Usually, but not always, this is done in Hilton’s favor: the first four nights will cost more as part of a five-night reservation than as four one-night reservations.

At this point, I would like to be able to pull off the napkin and reveal that I’ve reverse-engineered the precise formula Hilton uses to make these trims, but that’s not true. I spent the morning poking around the website and running experiments, and concluded that sometimes Hilton does this, sometimes it doesn’t, and when they do it’s usually against the customer’s interests.

Here’s a screenshot of the basic principle at work:

To walk through what you’re seeing there, a five-night stay starting on May 4 costs 199,000 Honors points, while the same five nights priced individually cost 248,000 points. In this case, the night of the 6th is “trimmed down” to 48,000 points, so the reservation costs 1,000 points less than it would if Hilton offered a true fifth-night-free, like IHG.

Meanwhile, a five-night stay starting on the 5th costs 196,0000 Honors points, while the same five nights would cost 253,000 points on their own. In this case, the nights of the 5th, 7th, and 8th are “trimmed up” to 49,000 points each, so the stay costs 3,000 points more than it would if the nightly rates were used. But because the night of the 9th costs so much more, the total cost of the stay is still less than the previous example.

Why does Hilton use this hybrid model?

The truth is, I’m not sure why Hilton has adopted this pricing model. And in fact, I’m not even certain that they did it deliberately. It’s perfectly believable that they price five-night reservations this way for reasons totally unrelated to the fifth-night-free benefit. Perhaps another day I’ll try searching for five-night stays in a new account without elite status to see if the pricing change is function of stay length and not trying to nickle and dime points redemptions after all.

If I did have to guess (we’ve now entered the reckless speculation portion of the post) I’d say that this was probably not actually designed to rob a few thousand points from their most loyal customers here and there, but rather to “simplify” the pricing page. The main visual effect of Hilton’s “trims” is to bring each of the four remaining nights closer together in price.

Here’s another set of examples where rates are trimmed up (against the customer):

And here are some dates and room types where rates are left as is, giving the customer the “full” 60,000-point credit for the last night:

In other words, what looks to us like a pricing decision engineered to get one over on us may have been as simple as a developer trying to think of a kludge that would make all the numbers look more or less the same.

Why it matters

While I’m sure there are folks as interested in the minutiae of pricing decisions as I am, the concrete reason this practice matters is that Hilton frequently sells points for “a bit less” than 0.5 cents if you first click through an online shopping portal to Points.com.

This isn’t usually an especially good deal, since Hilton points are also worth about 0.5 cents, and it doesn’t make any sense to buy anything for what it’s worth; keep your money.

Buying points for an immediate fifth-night-free redemption is an obvious exception. If you can buy $1.25 for a dollar, then the proposition becomes a lot more interesting, but only if you know how many points to buy.

And this is, sure enough, exactly how I got interested: I bought points for a five-night reservation, and once the points had hit my account discovered I didn’t have enough, because the Hilton website will not show you the total cost of an award stay unless you have enough points to book it (the iPhone app will if you click on “rate details”). Hilton had “trimmed up” the cost of my stay, and I had to buy a few thousand more points at a penny each to get over the top.