American Express cards I'm thinking about

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Introduction

When I say that I don't chase signup bonuses, it sometimes gives readers the impression that I don't apply for new cards or that I don't think signup bonuses are a good deal. Nothing could be further from the truth!

If I need a new card, I'll apply for it, I'll call reconsideration lines, and I'll move credit around like anyone else hungry for approval. Likewise, if I'm planning to sign up for a card, I'll do my due diligence and hunt down the highest signup bonus available.

The difference, as I see it, come down to what cards I think I need. Since I earn the miles I redeem and redeem the miles I earn, I won't sign up for a new card just because it has a high signup bonus; I need to have a sense of where and when I'd redeem those miles. Otherwise, I might never redeem them and be left with a worthless novelty balance.

That being said, here are a few cards I'm currently thinking about adding to my collection.

Starwood Preferred Guest Business

I recently met the $50,000 spend threshold on my Platinum Delta SkyMiles Business American Express card, which makes the card all but useless for the rest of the calendar year. Last week I called American Express to ask which cards I was eligible to product change my card to, and was given two options: the Starwood Preferred Guest Business card, or the Blue for Business.

The latter product earns 1 non-flexible Membership Rewards point everywhere, which isn't very interesting, while the Starwood Preferred Guest card earns points that can be transferred to Delta, Alaska, or American (among others), in addition to booking Starwood hotel stays.

The main reason I'm interested in the Starwood card is for hotel stays. While Hilton is my primary hotel program because of their enormous footprint and the high bonused earning rate on the Hilton Surpass American Express, there are times when Hilton rooms aren't available or their properties are inconveniently located. At times like those, it's helpful to have points like Ultimate Rewards (for transfers to Hyatt) or Starpoints for booking alternatives.

On the one hand, requesting a product change to the Starwood Preferred Guest card would save me a hard credit pull and the risk of having my application denied. On the other hand, it would permanently cost me the 25,000 Starpoints I would earn if I applied for the card from scratch.

Ultimately, given the choice between canceling my Delta card, keeping it, or product changing to Starwood Preferred Guest, I'm leaning towards the product change, even if that means leaving 25,000 Starpoints on the table.

New "Old" Blue Cash

While my pre-devaluation "Old" Blue Cash card was closed by American Express in December, the "Old" Blue Cash card is still available, albeit in stunted form, and still earns up to $2,240 in annual cash back on purchases at supermarkets, gas stations, and drug stores. It's not as outrageously good a deal as it was before bonused earning was capped at $50,000 in yearly spend, but it's still low-hanging fruit, and I'm considering applying for another.

Amex EveryDay Preferred

While I'm not thrilled about the $95 annual fee, the EveryDay Preferred earns 4.5 Membership Rewards points per dollar spent at grocery stores (on up to $6,000 in spend) and 3 Membership Rewards points per dollar spent at gas stations (uncapped) when you make 30 purchases during your statement cycle.

I don't find Membership Rewards points to be particularly valuable, but this card would be a highly efficient method of earning Delta SkyMiles compared to my Delta Platinum Business American Express, and with a much lower annual fee. Delta is my primary airline program for domestic travel, so being able to earn those miles faster means paying less for the redemptions I already know I'm going to make.

The tradeoff, assuming I product change my Delta card to a Starwood card, would be giving up the opportunity to earn 20,000 Medallion Qualifying Miles per year through credit card spend.

However, I've already secured Silver Medallion status for 2016, and I don't trust Delta enough to pay a $195 annual fee purely in the hope that the SkyMiles program will retain value in 2017 and beyond.

Conclusion

When thinking about my credit card applications, as you can see above, signup bonuses play virtually no role in deciding whether to apply. If the Amex EveryDay Preferred is worth getting, it's worth getting in order to manufacture spend on the card year-round, not because its signup bonus was temporarily raised to 30,000 Membership Rewards points.

Likewise, for the convenience of a product change (keeping the same account number, avoiding a credit pull, etc.) I'll go so far as to permanently give up the chance to earn a 25,000 Starpoint signup bonus, because I believe the card is worth spending money on year-round, not just in order to trigger a one-time payday.

Thinking about Starwood Preferred Guest

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Since my American Express "old" Blue Cash card was closed late last year, I've carried just two American Express-issued credit cards: my trusty Hilton HHonors Surpass, and my ill-advised but so-far-irresistible Delta Business Platinum card.

An individual is allowed to carry up to four American Express-issued credit cards and four charge cards, so I have, in principle, two "slots" I can use for additional credit cards. Casting about, there are two obvious candidates: the Amex EveryDay Preferred, which gives (up to) 3 Membership Rewards points per dollar spent at gas stations and carries a $95 annual fee, and the Starwood Preferred Guest business or personal credit card, which has an annual fee going up to $95 on August 11, 2015 (the first year's annual fee is waived).

I've written about the EveryDay Preferred card before, so for now I want to focus on the Starwood Preferred Guest American Express card.

Starpoints are expensive

Since the Starwood Preferred Guest card doesn't offer any bonus categories (besides Starwood stays themselves), any Starpoints earned with the card are by definition expensive: even if you displace only unbonused manufactured spending, you're buying one Starpoint for 2 or 2.22 cents, depending on your highest-earning card for unbonused spend.

Starpoints can be valuable for award stays

At the low end and the very high end, Starwood's award chart is intensely fair: a weekend night at a Category 1 hotel costs just 2,000 Starpoints (a $44 imputed redemption value!), and a 30,000-to-35,000-Starpoint night in a category 7 property, while having a steep $660-$770 imputed redemption value, may still offer a discount at an expensive property like the the St. Regis Princeville Resort on Kauai, where 30,000 Starpoints will get you a $992.34 room at the beginning of January:

For mid-tier award stays, unfortunately, Starwood are just too expensive: a 16,000-Starpoint stay, with its $352 imputed redemption value, will get you a night at the Westin Dublin, while just 50,000-60,000 HHonors ($185-$222 IRV) points can be redeemed for a night at the nearby Morrison, a DoubleTree by Hilton Hotel.

This is fundamentally the same problem I had with chasing Hyatt Diamond status.

Starpoints can be valuable for Cash & Points awards

If you earn your Starpoints exclusively through manufacturing spend on the American Express Starwood Preferred Guest card, you are always better off redeeming them for Cash & Points awards than for award stays (except on stays of 5 or more nights at Category 3-7 properties, where the 5th night is free).

That's because Cash & Points awards allow you to "buy back" Starpoints at between 1.1 cents (for high-season, Category 5 stays) and 2 cents (for Category 1 stays), while each Starpoint you buy through unbonused, manufactured spend costs between 2 and 2.22 cents. Here's my quick guide to how much you're paying for Starpoints when you redeem for Cash & Points awards:

On stays of exactly 5 nights, the math changes, since each Starpoint is worth 1.25 Starpoints: in other words, you're buying Starpoints at 1.776 cents each, not 2.22 cents each (the proof of this is left to the reader). In that case, low-season Category 5-7 Cash & Points awards are no longer strictly superior to points-only award stays.

Starpoints are the only way to earn bonused Alaska and American miles

Delta SkyMiles and United MileagePlus miles are trivially easy to earn. You can earn SkyMiles with any flexible Membership Rewards-earning credit card, like the aforementioned Amex EveryDay Preferred, or 1.4 and 1.5 SkyMiles per dollar spent on the American Express Delta Platinum and Reserve co-branded cards, respectively. You can earn MileagePlus miles (and lots of them!) with a Chase Ink Plus card and any number of Chase Freedom cards.

But the Bank of America Alaska Airlines co-branded credit card earns just one Mileage Plan mile per dollar spent, as do the Barclaycard and Citi American AAdvantage co-branded cards.

The only way to earn more than one Mileage Plan or AAdvantage mile per dollar spent, let alone both, is with the Starwood Preferred Guest American Express card, since Starpoints can be transferred to both Alaska Airlines and American at a 20,000:25,000 ratio, year-round.

While I wouldn't buy all my Mileage Plan miles or all my AAdvantage miles at 1.776 cents each, I'd conceivably buy some miles at 1.776 cents, for example to top up a high-value international business class award.

Conclusion

So that's where I am in thinking about my next American Express application.

There really are times when Starwood Preferred Guest properties offer the best possible value: I booked a stay at the Sheraton Memphis Downtown Hotel during a national fencing tournament for just 7,000 Starpoints per night, when the entire area around the convention center was sold out. That was a steal.

On the other hand, I get a tremendous amount of value from my Delta SkyMiles, and would certainly be able to get a lot of ongoing value from a card that earned 3 SkyMiles per dollar spent at gas stations.

What do my readers think? What considerations have I overlooked?

Why everyone's talking about the Diners Club Card Elite

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Back in September I was the first blogger to observe that the new Diners Club Card Elite, which earns 3 Club Rewards points per dollar spent at "grocery stores, supermarkets, drug stores, pharmacies and automobile fuel service stations when you pay at the pump," allows points transfers, according to Flyertalk, to Starwood Preferred Guest at the not-totally-unreasonable rate of 1250 Club Rewards points to 750 Starpoints.

Personally, I don't pay $300 annual fees, so I was a bit surprised to find that the Diners Club Card Elite was one of the most popular topics of conversation last weekend in Phoenix. That convinced me to take a second look at the card's value proposition.

Finding the right comparison

In my first back-of-the-envelope calculation, I compared the Diners Club Card Elite to the "old" Blue Cash, which turned out to be an unfortunately timely comparison, given the wave of Blue Cash shutdowns (and PayPal warnings!) that occurred in October.

It turned out that most folks I spoke with in Phoenix were actually comparing the Diners Club Card Elite not to a straight cash back card like Blue Cash, but rather to the American Express Starwood Preferred Guest card, which earns 1 Starpoint per dollar spent.

This comparison is complicated by the fact that the Starwood Preferred Guest American Express and Diners Club Card Elite earn points, while their annual fees have to be paid in US dollars. What we need is a common point of measurement, which is happily provided, as usual, by the Barclaycard Arrival Plus MasterCard.

Since the Starwood Preferred Guest American Express earns just 1 Starpoint per dollar, and has no bonus categories (besides SPG properties themselves), anyone who is willing to manufacture spend on the card is already implicitly giving their Starpoints a value of at least 2.2 cents each by foregoing the same amount of spend on the Barclaycard Arrival Plus MasterCard.

Since the Diners Club Card Elite, in its extremely common bonus categories, earns 1.8 Starpoints per dollar spent, a user will break even when she spends, in bonus categories, that amount of bonused spend which generates the $235 difference in the annual fees between the Diners Club Card Elite and the Starwood Preferred Guest American Express.

That break-even amount, remarkably, is just $13,352. At that level of spend, a user will generate 40,057 Club Rewards points, which can be transferred to 24,034 Starpoints, or 10,682 more than with the Starwood Preferred Guest American Express. As shown above, those points are worth $235, the difference in the two cards' annual fees.

Conclusion

On this blog, I always try to go where the numbers take me, leaving at the door as much prejudice and superstition as possible. And that's what the numbers say: at quite low levels of bonused spend, the Diners Club Card Elite generates enough "excess" Starpoints to justify paying the annual fee, assuming you do, in fact, value Starpoints at 2.2 cents or more each.

But this analysis requires two big caveats. First, there are other cards which bonus grocery store spend, like the American Express Preferred Rewards Gold and Hilton HHonors Surpass, and the US Bank Flexperks Travel Rewards cards. Ironically, the $300 annual fee of the Diners Club Card Elite will pay the annual fees of all three of those cards ($175, $75, and $49, respectively). And that's a big problem with paying high annual fees: it's not that it's impossible to recoup the annual fee in value – of course it's possible. But it requires a commitment to doing so, at the expense of other points you may want or need over the course of the year.

The second caveat is that any comparison with the American Express Starwood Preferred Guest or Barclaycard Arrival Plus is inherently misleading, since those cards earn at the same rate regardless of the merchant, while the Diners Club Card Elite requires cannibalizing already-bonused grocery or drug store spend.

Unless, of course, your "old" Blue Cash card has already been shut down. In that case I think there's a clear argument for moving drug store spend, a cheap and plentiful, but now rarely-bonused, merchant category, to the Diners Club Card Elite.

Do this now: Starwood and IHG fall promotions

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I've updated my Hotel Promotions page with two more Fall hotel promotions.

Double or triple points with Starwood Preferred Guest

Between September 15 and December 15, 2014, earn double Starpoints on paid stays of 2 or more nights, or triple Starpoints on paid stays of 2 or more nights that include a Friday or Saturday night (Thursday or Friday night in the Middle East). Register for the promotion here by October 31, and find the list of non-participating properties here.

While it's not spectacular, and there are a fair number of non-participating properties, you should still register now, before you forget, in case you end up with some paid Starwood stays this Fall.

At least 50,000 points or 2 free nights with IHG Rewards

This Fall IHG Rewards is continuing their recent trend of offering "customized" promotions to members based on their history with the program. Here's the offer I received (based on my non-existent participation with IHG Rewards):

As is true for many folks, it's possible to complete all 5 of my tasks by staying a total of three nights over two stays, if and only if both stays are completed at different Holiday Inn hotels and include two Saturdays.

As it happens, I have an upcoming Saturday night award stay at the airport Hyatt Place in Portland, Oregon, for which I redeemed 8,000 Gold Passport points. Since there's also a Holiday Inn property at the airport, I can easily book a stay there and end up breaking roughly even (I'll pay about $93 and get my 8,000 Gold Passport points back, paying 1.16 cents per Gold Passport point and meeting almost half my IHG Rewards tasks).

For my second Saturday, second Holiday Inn, second stay, and second and third nights, I'll probably slightly "overbook" and make a 3-night reservation in San Antonio for an upcoming trip my partner needs to take there. I'll pay about $553 for the 3 nights and fulfill the rest of my IHG Rewards tasks.

That's perhaps $60-70 more than the cheapest satisfactory room in central San Antonio (and it's likely possible to find an even lower rate using opaque booking sites, not to mention using hotel points). On the other hand, that premium will pay for 2 free nights at any IHG property in the world, subject to award availability.

In discussing this promotion, The Miles Professor made the most important point when she wrote:

"The certificates do expire after 12 months so it only really makes sense to go for it if you have a particular trip and hotel in mind. For some hotels, award nights are not always available so, if you do have your heart set on a certain hotel, check for general availability instead of time [sic]."

Back in June I wrote about hotel loyalty program "no blackout date" policies, and shared that IHG has the worst policy of all the major chains, essentially allowing properties to throttle award availability at any time and in any way they choose.

On the other hand, I have an upcoming trip to Italy that still has a number of nights that need to be booked, so I'm hoping those 2 free award nights will give me some valuable flexibility as I complete my hotel reservations for that trip.

Whether you plan to game the promotion or not, be sure to register now, before you forget.

MS for hotels: taking Matt at his word

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Background

This week I saw a lot of reactions to Drew at Travel is Free's post on manufacturing spend for hotel stays. Unfortunately, by looking only at the dollar cost of manufacturing spend, and not the opportunity cost, Drew left out the key fact that if you're not getting 2 or 2.2 cents per point when manufacturing spend on your co-branded credit cards, you'd be better off earning cash back and paying with cash for your stays.

Matt at Saverocity took advantage of that oversight to poke fun at Drew:

"Let me ask you a question… if I gave you $10,000 (plus fees) of my float and said. Come back with as many SPG points as you could, what would you do?

  • buy 285,715 points with the 10K?

  • buy 20x $500 cards with your SPG Amex and earn 10,000 points?

  • buy 20 x $500 cards with your 5x, earning $500 cash and use that to buy at 3.5cents each?[...

...]Option 2 (use the SPG) vs Option 3 (use a 5% and buy points) is the difference between earning 10,000 (SPG card) and 14,785 (14,285, plus the act of buying the would earn 500 more)."

Now, my readers know that this wasn't strictly speaking fair of Matt. Of course you should be putting as much spend as you can on your 5% cash back cards – until that spend is throttled.

But Matt's quip still got me thinking: are there co-branded credit cards that generate points that can't be bought more cheaply with a 5% cash back card?

Love for sale: buying hotel loyalty points

Here's the cost of buying hotel loyalty points from each program I follow (without any bonuses on purchased points):

  • Starwood Preferred Guest (up to 20,000 Starpoints per calendar year): 3.5 cents per Starpoint;
  • Hilton HHonors (up to 40,000 HHonors points annually): 1 cent per HHonors point;
  • Marriott Rewards (up to 50,000 Marriott Rewards points annually): 1.25 cents per Marriott rewards point;
  • Hyatt Gold Passport (up to 40,000 Gold Passport points annually): 2.4 cents per Hyatt Gold Passport point;
  • IHG Rewards Club (up to 40,000 IHG Rewards points annually): 1.15 cents per IHG Rewards point;
  • Club Carlson (up to 40,000 Gold Points annually): 0.7 cents per Gold Point.

Analysis: cash back versus co-branded credit cards

Remember, the question is: are there points that are cheaper to earn through manufacturing spend on a co-branded credit card than buying them with cash back earned with a 5% cash back credit card (within annual purchase limits)?

We can immediately rule out the Starwood Preferred Guest American Express and Chase Marriott Rewards, Hyatt Gold Passport, and IHG Rewards Club credit cards, all of which earn just 1 point per dollar spent. Earning 5% cash back, on the other hand, allows you to purchase:

  • 1.43 Starpoint (43% bonus);
  • 4 Marriott Rewards points (300% bonus);
  • 2.08 Hyatt Gold Passport points (108% bonus);
  • or 4.35 IHG points (335% bonus).

The US Bank Club Carlson Premier and Business cards, which earn 5 Gold Points per dollar spent everywhere, come closer to par, since you can buy just 7.14 Gold Points with a 5% cash back credit card – a 43% bonus, the same as purchased Starpoints.

Hilton HHonors for the (dubious) win

The only hotel program whose co-branded credit cards stand toe-to-toe with 5% cash back in this comparison is Hilton HHonors. The Hilton HHonors Surpass American Express earns 6 HHonors points per dollar spent at gas stations and grocery stores, while a 5% cash back card in the same categories would only allow you to purchase 5 HHonors points at 1 cent each.

Conclusion

As Matt correctly points out, this analysis is absurd: you'll virtually always be better off spending your 5% cash back on revenue rooms, rather than buying hotel points to redeem for the same or similar hotels. However, it is worth keeping in mind if you happen to be close to a hotel redemption (perhaps an expensive Starwood Nights & Flights or Marriott Hotel + Air vacation package) and are considering shifting some of your manufactured spend from your 5% cash back card to a co-branded hotel card in order to earn the remaining points. Except in the case of Hilton, that's a trap – keep earning 5% cash back and just buy the remaining points you need (or transfer them from a flexible points currency like Ultimate Rewards).

Point density versus imputed redemption values

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There are two related, but distinct, concepts that bear thinking about when contemplating hotel loyalty currencies. The same concepts are involved in airline mile redemptions, but in a much more nebulous way since airline award availability is much more closely tied to fares than in the hotel world, where (in some cases and under some circumstances) you are able to redeem your points for hotel rooms year-round.

Those concepts are "point density" and what I've called in the past (Club Carlson, Hilton) the "value per night required" to justify manufacturing spend on a co-branded credit card rather than a 2.22% cash back credit card like the Barclaycard Arrival+ MasterCard.

What's the difference?

Point Density

Point density, in the sense I use it, is a specific measure of the rebate value of a dollar spent with a hotel chain when the earned points are used for award stays with that chain.

On this page, I've calculated the point densities for 6 hotel loyalty program under a variety of conditions. Point density takes into account 2 variables: your elite status with the chain in question (and use of a co-branded credit card, if applicable) and the desired hotel category you aim to redeem your points in, and generates a single number: the number of dollars you need to spend to generate that award night redemption.

Some of this information was assembled by Travel is Free in this sprawling infographic (now slightly dated). You'll want to examine my complete point density charts if you want to make an educated decision about your own loyalty.

To give the most trivial example of point density, here's the amount of money that has to be spent with each hotel loyalty for a non-elite member using a third-party credit card to earn an award night at a top-tier property in that program, notwithstanding any promotions:

  • Starwood Preferred Guest (excluding "suite-only" properties): $17,500
  • Hilton HHonors: $9,500
  • Hyatt Gold Passport: $6,000
  • IHG Rewards: $5,000
  • Marriott Rewards (excluding Ritz Carlton properties): $4,500
  • Club Carlson: $3,500

Point density is the concept you want to focus on when you're paying out of your own pocket for your travel or have a choice where your employer puts you up. By examining the various point density charts, you can decide where the rebate value of your hotel spend will be highest: which chain will reward you with free nights at the properties you want to stay the most quickly?

Imputed Redemption Values

What I've previously called the "value per night required," but which is better called "imputed redemption value," measures something different: the value you need to get from redemptions of your manufactured spend to justify putting it on a hotel's co-branded credit card rather than a 2.22% cash back card like the Barclaycard Arrival+ World MasterCard.

My updated calculation of these imputed redemption values for Club Carlson are illustrative:

Reading this chart is simple: if you're redeeming 70,000 Gold Points for one night at a Category 7 Club Carlson property, your imputed redemption value is $308, since that's the value of the Barclaycard Arrival miles you could have earned with the same $14,000 in manufactured spend. If a revenue room at the same property is less than $308, you would have been better off manufacturing that spend on a 2.22% cash back card — or staying at a cheaper property!

However, as I've stressed before (here and here), that doesn't mean you shouldn't redeem your Gold Points for that night. On the other hand, if you find yourself consistently redeeming your points for below their imputed redemption value, you should take the time to reconsider your overall miles and points strategy.

Here's the chart I assembled for the Hilton HHonors program, assuming your spend is manufactured with the HHonors Surpass card at 6 HHonors points per dollar spent:

Here's a real-life example of decision making using this chart: I'm planning a 2-night stay at the Hilton Molino Stucky Venice this January, when the cheapest standard room award is 50,000 HHonors points. When I pull up room rates at the property, I find that rooms on my travel dates are costing $193. Since that's $8 above the imputed redemption value of $185 for 2-night, 50,000 point stays, I know that I'm not going to be leaving money on the table booking with HHonors points rather than my Arrival+ card.

This analysis doesn't take into account the points and elite night and stay credit earned on paid stays. In this case, by booking with HHonors points I'm foregoing about 3,700 HHonors points (as a Gold elite), or more depending on any promotions running in January.

That's a trivial enough sum that I'm comfortable disregarding it, but if you're gunning for high-level elite status with a chain that rewards loyalty better than Hilton does, like Starwood or Hyatt, foregoing your elite stay and night credits might require a larger redemption surplus.

Remaining Imputed Redemption Values

The remaining co-branded credit cards don't feature high earning on everyday spend like Club Carlson or lucrative bonus categories like the HHonors Surpass, so their imputed redemption values are easy to calculate:

Starwood Preferred Guest

Marriott Rewards

Hyatt Gold Passport

IHG Rewards

Remember: lower imputed redemption values are better

When deciding whether to redeem a fixed-value points currency or a hotel's own loyalty currency, you'll ideally maximize the difference between the value of your stay and your imputed redemption value. That's the money you "save" by manufacturing spend on a co-branded credit card instead of a 2.22% cash back credit card.

In this light, some of the higher imputed redemption values in the charts above are so high it's hard to imagine their relevance. In reality, if you look closely at the properties involved you might find the values are not completely unrealistic.

True, in a few minutes of surfing I wasn't able to find a single IHG property that retailed for over $1,100 per night. But Park Hyatts like Milan ($662 for the first date I checked), Paris Vendome ($730), and Sydney ($939) can easily exceed the $660 imputed redemption value for Category 7 properties. That's worth keeping in mind if you have your heart set on a specific property in an exotic locale (so-called "aspirational" award trips).

Conclusion

Imputed redemption values give you a simple method to decide how to achieve your travel goals as effectively as possible.

On that note, consider that cash and points awards, such as those offered by Hilton, Hyatt, and Starwood, sometimes provide the best of both worlds: the ability to redeem your Arrival miles against the cash portion of the award, while cashing in your hotel points at a value that exceeds the "remaining" imputed redemption value for your stay.

What do no-blackout-date policies really mean?

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During last weekend's trip to New York, I ran into a problem that I think is fairly common: a property won't show award availability, even though standard rooms are still available at cash rates.

In case readers run into similar situations, I thought this would make a useful resource: hotel chain policies on award blackout dates.

Club Carlson

According to Club Carlson's website:

"As a Club CarlsonSM member, you can redeem your Gold Points® for free Award Nights at more than 1,000 Carlson Rezidor hotels worldwide – with no blackout dates on standard rooms."

While attempting to make a reservation at the Radisson Martinique, I discovered that even though standard rooms were still available for sale, I was not able to redeem Gold Points for one. Indeed, you can see this is still true today:

Since I was getting down to the wire planning the trip, I decided to reach out to Club Carlson and see if they could make me an award reservation anyway. The phone agent I spoke to was singularly unhelpful, so I tried Twitter. The agent asked me to e-mail her, and over e-mail she told me:

"Rooms using points for reservations are based on availability and hotels only set aside a certain amount of rooms for redemption reservations, promotions, discounts, etc."

In other words, their "no blackout date" policy means nothing: while there aren't any systemwide blackout dates, hotels can make rooms unavailable for redemption any time.

I've since discovered that the Radisson Martinique makes rooms available for weekend redemptions sometime Wednesday afternoon. So if you are interested in making a reservation there, try the Club Carlson website then to see if they've opened up any award availability.

Hilton HHonors

Here's the Hilton policy on blackout dates:

"Use your HHonors Points to book a free standard room at any of our hotels and resorts worldwide, with no blackout dates."

And indeed, while I was looking at award availability at the Hilton Molino Stucky Venice, I discovered that while there were no award nights available for some nights:

there were also no paid rooms available for the same dates:

Marriott Rewards

In this FAQ, Marriott explains:

"Blackout dates traditionally refer to a limited number of dates on which a hotel could choose not to accept redemptions. With our “No Blackout Dates” policy, hotels will no longer have blackout dates for redemptions. Hotels may limit the number of standard rooms available for redemption on a limited number of days."

In case that sounds an awful lot like a blackout date, Marriott goes on to clarify that redemptions might not be allowed if:

"The date is an approved Inventory Control Date. On a limited number of nights, hotels may limit the number of rooms available for redemption. You may be trying to redeem on one of these nights and the hotel has already reached its maximum number of redemptions."

In other words, hotels can limit points redemptions if the date is one when people particularly want to stay at the hotel.

Hyatt Gold Passport

According to the Hyatt Gold Passport terms and conditions:

"Hyatt Gold Passport Free Night Awards apply when standard rooms are available at the Hyatt Daily Rate. Standard rooms are defined by each hotel and are not subject to blackout dates."

That seems pretty airtight, but there were enough reports of difficulty booking standard rooms that just this May a Hyatt representative explicitly stated on FlyerTalk:

"As long as the Hyatt Daily Rate and a standard room is available, you are able to redeem your Gold Passport free nights."

While seeing whether I could make an award reservation for December 31, 2014, in New York City, the two properties that still had (astronomically expensive) paid rates available seemed to show award availability:

Once I clicked through, however, I was told that:

"The special offer/rate you have selected is unavailable during the dates you have selected, or it is not offered at this property."

It appears that these properties have tricked out their inventory such that they're offering only "Advance Purchase" and "Bed and Breakfast" rates, presumably knowing that if they offered any "Hyatt Daily Rate" rooms they'd have to offer those rooms on points, as well. This may be within the letter of the no-blackout-date policy, but in my view still violates the spirit of the policy, not that anyone cares about my views on hotel management.

IHG Rewards

Like Marriott and Club Carlson, IHG Rewards "no blackout date" policy is so full of loopholes you could drive a truck through it. Here's the relevant passage from the terms and conditions:

"Rooms are limited, subject to prior sale and availability of allocated resources and may be unavailable during high demand periods."

In other words, there are no blackout dates, just dates when the allocated resources don't allow you to make an award reservation.

Starwood Preferred Guest

The SPG terms and conditions state in no uncertain terms:

"An SPG Member may redeem Starpoints for single or double occupancy rooms at SPG Participating Hotels including, without limitation, for Free Night Awards."

The New Year's Eve test

It's hard to get a sense of how these programs and policies work in a vacuum, so I figured it'd be fun to run a little experiment. Which programs would allow me to redeem points for free nights at their Manhattan properties on December 31, 2014 (and what kind of value could I get from such an award)?

  • Club Carlson: Radisson Martinique, no rooms available;
  • Hilton: Hilton Manhattan East, $690.91 or 70,000 HHonors points, 0.99 cents per point;
  • Marriott: Lexington New York City, $591.13 or 40,000 Marriott Rewards points, 1.48 cents per point;
  • Hyatt: No Hyatt Daily Rate rooms available, so no award availability (see above);
  • IHG: Manhattan Midtown West, standard rooms available but "Reward Nights rooms are sold out for one or more of the dates you selected at this hotel."
  • Starwood: Four Points by Sheraton Manhattan Chelsea, $1,150 or 12,000 Starpoints, 9.5 cents per point.

In other words, Starwood and Hilton seem to vigorously apply the letter and spirit of their no-blackout-date policies.

Whatever policy IHG has barely qualifies as "no blackout dates."

Hyatt seems to allow their properties to play games with inventory, which is unfortunate, but all things considered, they do seem to have a relatively strict policy, and one supported by management.

The only real surprise here is Marriott, and it's a pleasant one: although their terms and conditions allow them to designate New Year's Eve as an Inventory Control Date, they haven't done so, and kudos to them for it.

Do this now: Starwood Preferred Guest early summer promotion

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Between May 1 and July 31, 2014, Starwood Preferred Guest is running a promotion giving double base points at participating properties for stays that don’t include a Sunday night (Saturday night in the Middle East) and triple base points at participating properties for stays that do include such a night.

There’s a long list of non-participating properties, so don’t deliberately direct any stays to Starwood properties without making sure the property is participating in this promotion.

And of course, register now, before you forget.

My next application cycle

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Background: What's in my wallet?

Compared to many travel bloggers, I rely on signup bonuses for a relatively small part of my travel needs. For example, my Barclaycard Arrival World MasterCard came with a 40,000 "mile" signup bonus, worth $444 in statement credits against travel purchases.

However, since it earns 2 miles per dollar, worth 2.22% cash back against travel purchases, it's also my go-to card for non-bonused manufactured spend, and I've earned and redeemed many tens of thousands of miles with the card. The 40,000 mile signup bonus is a great incentive to include it in any application cycle, but it's not the only reason to get the card, and in a lower-signup-bonus environment the card might still be worth applying for — at least for the first, fee-free, year.

All this leads me to say that since I rely on manufactured spend more than signup bonuses, it's more important for me to find the right combination of cards on the earning side than merely waiting for the highest signup bonuses. For example, I applied for the American Express Blue Cash back in January because of its earning potential, not its signup bonus — then I included a few cards with valuable signup bonuses to round out my application cycle.

The cards I'm waiting for

There are a few cards I don't yet have, which are going to complement my current holdings nicely. I plan to apply for these cards during my next application cycle:

  • Bank of America Alaska Airlines Signature Visa. The signup bonus for this card went as high as 50,000 miles back in December, during what I called a perfect storm of signup bonuses. It's currently stuck at 40,000 miles after spending $10,000 within 6 months, which is a great offer. But I'm hoping it pops back up to 50,000 sometime soon, so I can keep earning Alaska miles after May 31, when the Bank of America Alaska Airlines debit card finally disappears;
  • American Express Starwood Preferred Guest Personal or Business. This card has a 25,000 Starpoint signup bonus, and the ability to earn Starpoints, which are incredibly valuable for hotel stays, but also transferable to partner airlines and redeemable for paid airline tickets. In other words, if approved I'll be putting this card in heavy rotation, despite its earning rate of just 1 Starpoint per dollar;
  • Chase Ink Bold or Plus. I write about the earning potential of these cards fairly regularly, mainly when I'm envying people who already have them. I've grown increasingly disgusted with my Chase Sapphire Preferred card, since I put my travel purchases on my Arrival card and just don't eat out all that often (no reimbursed business expenses here!). I'm looking forward to changing my Sapphire Preferred to a Chase Freedom card (doubling my quarterly bonus earnings) and adding an Ink Bold or Plus to retain the flexibility of my Ultimate Rewards points.

What's missing

After picking up those three cards I'll have access to virtually all the most valuable points currencies. But there are a few cards I'm still considering for their other benefits:

  • Chase Hyatt Visa. I've written about this card before when contemplating whether it's worth renewing for its annual free night certificate (short answer: yes, if you'll use it). It simply isn't the case that staying at a Hyatt property is the best option for me very often, which makes it a tough decision to spend a hard credit pull on the card without specific upcoming plans;
  • Membership Rewards. American Express has a number of cards with lucrative Membership Rewards earning structures, but until I can find a few reliable venders where I can maximize those bonus categories, I'm not willing to commit to a $95 or $175 annual fee, given the signup bonuses currently available;
  • Club Carlson Premier Rewards Visa Signature. I already have the business version of this card, and I love it. The personal version has a slightly higher annual fee ($75 vs $60), and gives an additional 40,000 Gold Points on each account anniversary. That's a great value, but I'm not convinced it's worth another $75, given that I can manufacture 40,000 Gold Points whenever I want, without paying $75 or waiting for my account anniversary!

Those are the cards that are currently on my mind. What do you think: what cards do I need to include in my next application cycle?